The costs of providing the services that we have come to love and enjoy are going up on a yearly basis. Cities are looking at ways to reduce the costs of these increases but in the end these costs are paid through taxes. Traditionally taxes have been broken into three major sections (residential, commercial and industrial) which have formed the backbone of a cities income. Often the tax levels on commercial and industrial are higher and bring in more income for the city. Residential may be less in terms of individual cost but brings in a large portion because of the numbers of residences. What would happen if a city were too lose one of these 3 major incomes even slightly or completely. Canada has been struggling with the loss of its Industrial might since the mid-late 1900’s but this was accelerated in the recent economic downturn.
Ontario was hit the hardest by the forestry and manufacturing decline which had slowly been taking jobs from Canada for years. As companies looked to make larger profits and feed the demand by consumers for cheaper prices they moved elsewhere. For years we have seen companies go to other countries like China, India and Bangladesh to make their clothes for Canadians. Cities coffers have seen this decline affect the amount of money they have been able to bring in and the sources of money. While the loss of the industrial sector has made it much harder for the other 2 to carry the load it is still doing it. Thunder Bay for example was a heavy industrial city with forestry at its heart. Before the 2008 downturn we seen major job losses in the forestry sector as the US housing market started to collapse. Mills and their suppliers left their buildings abandoned and empty. The industrial portion of the tax base completely collapsed underneath the cities feet. In order to keep a steady tax base and keep the services which people demanded the burden was put on the commercial and residential sectors. Now these 2 sectors bare the brunt for tax increases and changes made by the city. Even in 2013, we have yet to see a noticeable increase in the industrial sector and many buildings still sit empty. But what would happen if we were to lose the commercial aspect of the 3 main pillars. Would we survive, what would we do and how bad would the cuts be.
I think that this is something that needs to be seriously considered. Brick and mortar businesses are becoming a thing of the past. Traditional stores are becoming a showroom for their online presence in which people test the product in the store but then buy online. The speed in which online shopping is growing is staggering; a couple years ago electronic Monday didn’t exist and Black Friday was the biggest shopping day of the year. In 2012, online shopping accounted for 289 billion dollars which was an increase of 33 billion dollars over 2011. These numbers are only expected to increase as more and more people view this as a viable alternative for going out to individual stores and purchasing the items there. In a society that is built on stretching every second and going as fast as possible the internet is becoming the number 1 source for our shopping. Online shopping is increasing while the traditional methods are starting to lose steam and lose a foothold. Futureshop which is one of the biggest electronic retailers in North America is feeling the heat with online shopping. It recent closed 15 stores in Canada and laid off more then 900 staff. This is the second round of closures which seen 50 stores closed in the US last year alone. Futureshop is not the only one to come from high and mighty to a lower place where closures are occurring. Sears is also a staple of Canadian business that has been around for years but is now under pressure from US retailers and the move to online businesses. If in its early years online shopping is putting this much pressure on traditional businesses then what will it be like in 10-20 years? I believe that malls and strip malls will be a thing of the past and that almost exclusively our shopping will be done online. If this turns out to be true it will play havoc with city planning and city coffers. Losing the industrial base to developing countries and losing the commercial base to the internet will see massive job losses and completely realign how we pay for services. Cities will need to fight over who gets to keep the buildings housing the servers or the warehouses for shipping the products but budgets will be slashed.
I believe that we are going to witness something incredible and scary in the next couple of years as the internet kills the traditional mortar and brick stores. Internet shopping is growing at a staggering rate and will continue to do so as more people sign on. Our cities will be forever changed and the way we design and live our lives will as well. We will be more interconnected and yet disconnected as we move from human – human contact to computer – computer. I believe that cities will struggle and that administrations, staff levels and services will be a shadow of themselves in the near future under the rein of the internet. They will need to figure out how to provide a new source of income to compensate for the loss of jobs and taxes by the transition.
Open minded Millenial perspective - OMMP 